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Swindon Town vs Crewe — League Two 2018

Swindon Town
Swindon Town
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Crewe
Crewe
D. Agyei 23' (pen)
11/19/2022League TwoLeague Two · Round 19The County Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Swindon Town41%
×Draw25%
Crewe35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Swindon Town
1.53
Crewe
1.39

Swindon Town creates 10% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 8 away

creates per match

Swindon Town
1.62
Crewe
1.30

allows per match

Swindon Town
1.48
Crewe
1.44

finishing

Swindon Town+0.24scores more
Crewe-0.05on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Swindon Town ↓

Crewe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Swindon Town or draw
65%
Swindon Town or Crewe
75%
Draw or Crewe
59%

Winning margin

Swindon Town wins by 2+
20%
Crewe wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Swindon Town 1+ goals
78%
Swindon Town 2+ goals
45%
Swindon Town 3+ goals
20%
Crewe 1+ goals
75%
Crewe 2+ goals
40%
Crewe 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Swindon Town (draw refunded)
54%
Crewe (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Swindon Town at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.48 · 14 matches

Crewe away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.44 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Swindon Town attack 1.62 + Crewe defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.53

Crewe attack 1.30 + Swindon Town defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Swindon Town scores more
41%
level
25%
Crewe scores more
35%

Swindon Town at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Swindon Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13
A. OkonkwoCreweCrewe · G
8.7

Match Events

23'
D. AgyeiPenalty
29'
M. Baudry← C. Harries
30'
Eli King
40'
Ciaran Brennan
54'
R. McDonald← L. Brook
74'
R. Adebisi← E. King
82'
T. Adeloye← L. Jephcott
82'
M. Lavinier← C. Brennan
82'
C. Colkett← J. Tabiner
90+2'
Ellis Iandolo
90+5'
L. Reed← B. Gladwin

Possession

70%Swindon

Shots

18Swindon

Pass accuracy

58%Swindon

Statistics

SwindonCrewe
Overview
70%Possession30%
18Total Shots10
9Corners3
5Fouls8
Shots
18Total Shots10
7On Target2
9Off Target2
2Blocked6
13Inside Box6
5Outside Box4
Passing
70%Possession30%
577Total Passes249
475Accurate Passes150
82%Pass Accuracy60%
Goalkeeping
1Saves7
Discipline
5Fouls8
2Yellow Cards1
1Offsides3

Match Recap: Swindon Town vs Crewe

Crewe beat Swindon Town 1-0 in League Two on November 19, 2022.

Goals: D. Agyei (23' pen).

Swindon Town controlled possession (70%) and registered 18 shots to 10.

The match was played at The County Ground in Swindon, Wiltshire.