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Swindon Town vs Bristol City — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Swindon Town
Swindon Town
Preview
12:00
Bristol City
Bristol City
7/25/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies
Big match
37%
Swindon Town
model favours
37%27%35%

Swindon Town score first in only 9% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
55%
under 2.5 goals
50%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Swindon Town37%
×Draw27%
Bristol City35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Swindon Town
1.25
Bristol City
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Swindon Town
2.00
Bristol City
1.75

allows per match

Swindon Town
0.67
Bristol City
0.50

finishing

Swindon Town+0.00on par
Bristol City+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Swindon Town ↓

Bristol City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Swindon Town or draw
65%
Swindon Town or Bristol City
73%
Draw or Bristol City
63%

Winning margin

Swindon Town wins by 2+
16%
Bristol City wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Swindon Town 1+ goals
71%
Swindon Town 2+ goals
36%
Swindon Town 3+ goals
13%
Bristol City 1+ goals
70%
Bristol City 2+ goals
34%
Bristol City 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Swindon Town (draw refunded)
51%
Bristol City (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Swindon Town at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Bristol City away — creates 1.75, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Swindon Town attack 2.00 + Bristol City defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.25

Bristol City attack 1.75 + Swindon Town defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Swindon Town scores more
37%
level
27%
Bristol City scores more
35%

Swindon Town at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Swindon Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Bristol City score first in only 19% of matches
  • Swindon Town have scored in 11 games running
  • 73% of Swindon Town’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Bristol City matches are rarely goalless — only 2.7% end 0-0

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Town
LLWL
City
DLWLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Swindon Town vs Bristol City — Match Preview

Swindon Town face Bristol City on July 25, 2026 in this Friendlies Clubs fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.