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Swindon Town vs Bradford — League Two 2018

Swindon Town
Swindon Town
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Bradford
Bradford
1/4/2020League TwoLeague Two · Round 26The County Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 139+ matches

Swindon Town43%
×Draw26%
Bradford31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Swindon Town
1.44
Bradford
1.19

Swindon Town creates 21% more chances

Season form · 139 home / 139 away

creates per match

Swindon Town
1.65
Bradford
1.15

allows per match

Swindon Town
1.22
Bradford
1.24

finishing

Swindon Town+0.00on par
Bradford+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Swindon Town ↓

Bradford →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Swindon Town or draw
69%
Swindon Town or Bradford
74%
Draw or Bradford
57%

Winning margin

Swindon Town wins by 2+
21%
Bradford wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Swindon Town 1+ goals
76%
Swindon Town 2+ goals
42%
Swindon Town 3+ goals
18%
Bradford 1+ goals
70%
Bradford 2+ goals
33%
Bradford 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Swindon Town (draw refunded)
58%
Bradford (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Swindon Town at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.22 · 139 matches

Bradford away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.24 · 139 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Swindon Town attack 1.65 + Bradford defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.44

Bradford attack 1.15 + Swindon Town defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Swindon Town scores more
43%
level
26%
Bradford scores more
31%

Swindon Town at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Swindon Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Swindon Town vs Bradford

Swindon Town and Bradford drew 1-1 in League Two on January 4, 2020.

The match was played at The County Ground in Swindon, Wiltshire.