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Swindon Town vs Accrington ST — League Two 2018

Swindon Town
Swindon Town
Preview
14:00
Accrington ST
Accrington ST
9/26/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 8County Ground
Big match
48%
Swindon Town
model favours
48%24%28%

Swindon Town score first in only 9% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
55%
over 2.5 goals
57%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Swindon Town48%
×Draw24%
Accrington ST28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Swindon Town
1.67
Accrington ST
1.23

Swindon Town creates 36% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 10 away

creates per match

Swindon Town
1.64
Accrington ST
0.90

allows per match

Swindon Town
1.55
Accrington ST
1.69

finishing

Swindon Town+0.13scores more
Accrington ST-0.10scores less

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Swindon Town ↓

Accrington ST →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Swindon Town or draw
72%
Swindon Town or Accrington ST
76%
Draw or Accrington ST
52%

Winning margin

Swindon Town wins by 2+
25%
Accrington ST wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Swindon Town 1+ goals
81%
Swindon Town 2+ goals
50%
Swindon Town 3+ goals
23%
Accrington ST 1+ goals
71%
Accrington ST 2+ goals
35%
Accrington ST 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Swindon Town (draw refunded)
63%
Accrington ST (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Swindon Town at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.55 · 13 matches

Accrington ST away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.69 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Swindon Town attack 1.64 + Accrington ST defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.67

Accrington ST attack 0.90 + Swindon Town defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Swindon Town scores more
48%
level
24%
Accrington ST scores more
28%

Swindon Town at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Swindon Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Swindon Town have scored in 11 games running
  • 73% of Swindon Town’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Accrington ST outscore their xG (1.3 vs 0.9 expected)
  • Their last 8 meetings averaged 3.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Swindon Town
Balanced
Accrington ST
Balanced
53%Possession47%
72%Pass accuracy62%
12.7Shots11.5
1.50xGBiggest gap0.94
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Swindon TownAccrington ST

Head-to-head

8 previous meetings

1
Swindon Town
3
Draws
4
Accrington ST
Avg goals: 3.5BTTS: 63%
2–20–40–02–21–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Town
LLWL
ST
WDLDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Swindon Town face Accrington ST (League Two)

League Two returns with Swindon Town hosting Accrington ST. Match starts September 26, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Swindon Town host Accrington ST at County Ground.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.