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Swift Hesperange vs FC Differdange 03 — National Division 2018

Swift Hesperange
Swift Hesperange
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
FC Differdange 03
FC Differdange 03
11/5/2023National DivisionNational Division · Round 11Stade Alphonse Theis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Swift Hesperange42%
×Draw24%
FC Differdange 0334%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Swift Hesperange
1.65
FC Differdange 03
1.47

Swift Hesperange creates 12% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 112 away

creates per match

Swift Hesperange
2.19
FC Differdange 03
1.83

allows per match

Swift Hesperange
1.11
FC Differdange 03
1.10

finishing

Swift Hesperange+0.00on par
FC Differdange 03+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Swift Hesperange ↓

FC Differdange 03 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Swift Hesperange or draw
66%
Swift Hesperange or FC Differdange 03
76%
Draw or FC Differdange 03
58%

Winning margin

Swift Hesperange wins by 2+
21%
FC Differdange 03 wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Swift Hesperange 1+ goals
81%
Swift Hesperange 2+ goals
49%
Swift Hesperange 3+ goals
23%
FC Differdange 03 1+ goals
77%
FC Differdange 03 2+ goals
43%
FC Differdange 03 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Swift Hesperange (draw refunded)
55%
FC Differdange 03 (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Swift Hesperange at home — creates 2.19, concedes 1.11 · 90 matches

FC Differdange 03 away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.10 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Swift Hesperange attack 2.19 + FC Differdange 03 defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.65

FC Differdange 03 attack 1.83 + Swift Hesperange defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Swift Hesperange scores more
42%
level
24%
FC Differdange 03 scores more
34%

Swift Hesperange at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Swift Hesperange will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

National Division: Swift Hesperange 1–1 FC Differdange 03

Swift Hesperange and FC Differdange 03 drew 1-1 in National Division on November 5, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Alphonse Theis in Hesperange.