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Sweden W vs Lithuania W — World Cup - Women - Qualification Europe 2027

Sweden W
Sweden W
Preview
13:00
Lithuania W
Lithuania W
10/13/2026World Cup - Women - Qualification EuropeWorld Cup - Women - Qualification Europe · Semi-finals
Big match
53%
Lithuania W
model favours
24%23%53%

Top-of-the-table clash — Sweden W 3 vs Lithuania W 2

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
58%
over 2.5 goals
58%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Sweden W24%
×Draw23%
Lithuania W53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sweden W
1.17
Lithuania W
1.83

Lithuania W creates 56% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Sweden W
1.33
Lithuania W
2.33

allows per match

Sweden W
1.33
Lithuania W
1.00

finishing

Sweden W+0.00on par
Lithuania W+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sweden W ↓

Lithuania W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Sweden W or draw
47%
Sweden W or Lithuania W
77%
Draw or Lithuania W
76%

Winning margin

Sweden W wins by 2+
10%
Lithuania W wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Sweden W 1+ goals
69%
Sweden W 2+ goals
33%
Sweden W 3+ goals
11%
Lithuania W 1+ goals
84%
Lithuania W 2+ goals
54%
Lithuania W 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Sweden W (draw refunded)
32%
Lithuania W (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sweden W at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Lithuania W away — creates 2.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sweden W attack 1.33 + Lithuania W defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.17

Lithuania W attack 2.33 + Sweden W defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Sweden W scores more
24%
level
23%
Lithuania W scores more
53%

Lithuania W at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Lithuania W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Sweden W and Lithuania W have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
W
DLWLD
W
WDLWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sweden W vs Lithuania W — Match Preview

Sweden W face Lithuania W on October 13, 2026 in this World Cup - Women - Qualification Europe fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.