Swansea 3–2 West Brom: Result & Stats

Swansea

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

West Brom

J. Piroe 90+3'

O. Ntcham 66'

L. Cundle 26'

S. Ajayi 54'

O. Yokuşlu 13'

5/8/2023

Championship · Round 46Swansea.com Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 55+ matches

Swansea39%

×Draw27%

West Brom34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SwanseaExpected goals in this matchWest Brom

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.18

Swansea

1.27

West Brom

1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 58 home / 55 away

1.30

creates per match

1.15

1.21

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Swansea

1.30

West Brom

1.15

allows per match

Swansea

1.21

West Brom

1.23

+0.03on par

finishing

-0.04on par

finishing

Swansea+0.03on par

West Brom-0.04on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Swansea ↓

West Brom →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Swansea or draw

66%

Swansea or West Brom

73%

Draw or West Brom

61%

Winning margin

Swansea wins by 2+

17%

West Brom wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Swansea 1+ goals

72%

Swansea 2+ goals

36%

Swansea 3+ goals

14%

West Brom 1+ goals

69%

West Brom 2+ goals

33%

West Brom 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Swansea (draw refunded)

53%

West Brom (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Swansea at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.21 · 58 matches

West Brom away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.23 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Swansea attack 1.30 + West Brom defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.27

West Brom attack 1.15 + Swansea defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Swansea scores more

39%

level

27%

West Brom scores more

34%

Swansea at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Swansea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

L. Cundle

Swansea · M

7.7

Match Events

13'

O. Yokuşlu↳ J. Swift

26'

L. Cundle↳ J. Paterson

54'

S. Ajayi

61'

O. Cooper← L. Cullen

63'

T. Gardner-Hickman← O. Yokuşlu

66'

O. Ntcham↳ R. Manning

73'

K. Naughton← J. Paterson

76'

Brandon Thomas-Asante

79'

K. Bartley← E. Pieters

80'

Oliver Cooper

85'

Taylor Gardner-Hickman

90+3'

J. Piroe

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SwanseaWest

Overview

62%Possession38%

16Total Shots10

6Corners3

13Fouls9

Shots

16Total Shots10

4On Target4

7Off Target6

5Blocked0

6Inside Box9

10Outside Box1

Passing

62%Possession38%

634Total Passes380

578Accurate Passes324

91%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

13Fouls9

1Yellow Cards2

1Offsides0