Swansea 2–1 West Brom: Result & Stats

Swansea

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

West Brom

Llorente 86'

J. Ayew 72'

J. Evans 33'

5/21/2017

Premier League · Round 38Liberty Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Swansea43%

×Draw27%

West Brom30%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SwanseaExpected goals in this matchWest Brom

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.11

Swansea

1.39

West Brom

1.11

Swansea creates 25% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 94 away

1.27

creates per match

0.84

1.38

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Swansea

1.27

West Brom

0.84

allows per match

Swansea

1.38

West Brom

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Swansea+0.00on par

West Brom+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Swansea ↓

West Brom →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Swansea or draw

70%

Swansea or West Brom

73%

Draw or West Brom

57%

Winning margin

Swansea wins by 2+

20%

West Brom wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Swansea 1+ goals

75%

Swansea 2+ goals

40%

Swansea 3+ goals

16%

West Brom 1+ goals

67%

West Brom 2+ goals

30%

West Brom 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Swansea (draw refunded)

59%

West Brom (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Swansea at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.38 · 74 matches

West Brom away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.51 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Swansea attack 1.27 + West Brom defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.39

West Brom attack 0.84 + Swansea defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Swansea scores more

43%

level

27%

West Brom scores more

30%

Swansea at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Swansea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

Llorente

Swansea · F

8.0

Match Events

33'

J. Evans↳ D. Fletcher

51'

Marc Wilson

66'

L. Narsingh← L. Britton

72'

J. Ayew↳ Llorente

79'

J. McClean← J. Livermore

81'

Sung-Yeung Ki← L. Fer

84'

H. Robson-Kanu← J. Morrison

86'

Llorente↳ L. Narsingh

90'

Federico Fernández

90+3'

S. Kingsley← J. Ayew

90+1'

J. Leko← M. Wilson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SwanseaWest

Overview

65%Possession35%

12Total Shots16

7Corners4

8Fouls10

Shots

12Total Shots16

2On Target5

6Off Target6

4Blocked5

9Inside Box10

3Outside Box6

Passing

65%Possession35%

589Total Passes316

510Accurate Passes251

87%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

4Saves0

Discipline

8Fouls10

1Yellow Cards1

1Offsides0