Swansea 1–0 Rotherham: Result & Stats

Swansea

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Rotherham

M. Grimes 28'

11/21/2020

Championship · Round 12Liberty Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Swansea57%

×Draw24%

Rotherham19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SwanseaExpected goals in this matchRotherham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

0.84

Swansea

1.68

Rotherham

0.84

Swansea creates 100% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 12 away

1.30

creates per match

0.47

1.21

allows per match

2.06

creates per match

Swansea

1.30

Rotherham

0.47

allows per match

Swansea

1.21

Rotherham

2.06

+0.03on par

finishing

-0.05on par

finishing

Swansea+0.03on par

Rotherham-0.05on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Swansea ↓

Rotherham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Swansea or draw

81%

Swansea or Rotherham

76%

Draw or Rotherham

43%

Winning margin

Swansea wins by 2+

32%

Rotherham wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Swansea 1+ goals

81%

Swansea 2+ goals

50%

Swansea 3+ goals

24%

Rotherham 1+ goals

57%

Rotherham 2+ goals

21%

Rotherham 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Swansea (draw refunded)

75%

Rotherham (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Swansea at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.21 · 58 matches

Rotherham away — creates 0.47, concedes 2.06 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Swansea attack 1.30 + Rotherham defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.68

Rotherham attack 0.47 + Swansea defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Swansea scores more

57%

level

24%

Rotherham scores more

19%

Swansea at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Swansea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

M. Grimes

Swansea · M

8.6

Match Events

28'

M. Grimes

32'

Ryan Bennett

45'

Daniel Barlaser

46'

T. Clarke← M. Olosunde

46'

M. Miller← J. Lindsay

54'

M. Smith← G. Hirst

62'

K. Vassell← F. Jozefzoon

73'

W. Routledge← L. Cullen

77'

K. Palmer← Y. Dhanda

87'

K. Smith← J. Lowe

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SwanseaRotherham

Overview

54%Possession46%

11Total Shots8

8Corners7

16Fouls11

Shots

11Total Shots8

4On Target3

6Off Target4

1Blocked1

6Inside Box5

5Outside Box3

Passing

54%Possession46%

321Total Passes260

195Accurate Passes158

61%Pass Accuracy61%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

16Fouls11

1Yellow Cards1

6Offsides3