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Swansea vs Portsmouth — Championship 2024

Swansea
Swansea
Preview
19:45
Portsmouth
Portsmouth
1/27/2027ChampionshipChampionship · Round 28Swansea.com Stadium
44%
Swansea
model favours
44%27%29%

Swansea have scored in 14 games running

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
57%
under 2.5 goals
48%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 24+ matches

Swansea44%
×Draw27%
Portsmouth29%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Swansea
1.35
Portsmouth
1.04

Swansea creates 30% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 32 away

creates per match

Swansea
1.18
Portsmouth
0.86

allows per match

Swansea
1.22
Portsmouth
1.53

finishing

Swansea+0.03on par
Portsmouth+0.20scores more

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Swansea ↓

Portsmouth →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Swansea or draw
71%
Swansea or Portsmouth
73%
Draw or Portsmouth
56%

Winning margin

Swansea wins by 2+
20%
Portsmouth wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Swansea 1+ goals
74%
Swansea 2+ goals
39%
Swansea 3+ goals
15%
Portsmouth 1+ goals
65%
Portsmouth 2+ goals
28%
Portsmouth 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Swansea (draw refunded)
60%
Portsmouth (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Swansea at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.22 · 24 matches

Portsmouth away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.53 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Swansea attack 1.18 + Portsmouth defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.35

Portsmouth attack 0.86 + Swansea defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Swansea scores more
44%
level
27%
Portsmouth scores more
29%

Swansea at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Swansea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Swansea score first in only 13% of matches
  • Both teams score in 83% of Swansea’s matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Swansea
Balanced
Portsmouth
Balanced
57%PossessionBiggest gap49%
82%Pass accuracy73%
11.7Shots12.2
1.17xG1.15
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
SwanseaPortsmouth

Head-to-head

4 previous meetings

2
Swansea
1
Draws
1
Portsmouth
Avg goals: 3BTTS: 50%
2–11–00–42–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Swansea
WDWLW
Portsmouth
LWDWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Swansea face Portsmouth (Championship)

Championship returns with Swansea hosting Portsmouth. Match starts January 27, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Swansea host Portsmouth at Swansea.com Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.