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Swansea vs Millwall — Championship 2018

Swansea
Swansea
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Millwall
Millwall
9/15/2021ChampionshipChampionship · Round 7Swansea.com Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 61+ matches

Swansea39%
×Draw27%
Millwall34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Swansea
1.29
Millwall
1.17

Swansea creates 10% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 62 away

creates per match

Swansea
1.27
Millwall
1.12

allows per match

Swansea
1.21
Millwall
1.32

finishing

Swansea+0.04on par
Millwall-0.07on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Swansea ↓

Millwall →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Swansea or draw
66%
Swansea or Millwall
73%
Draw or Millwall
61%

Winning margin

Swansea wins by 2+
18%
Millwall wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Swansea 1+ goals
72%
Swansea 2+ goals
37%
Swansea 3+ goals
14%
Millwall 1+ goals
69%
Millwall 2+ goals
33%
Millwall 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Swansea (draw refunded)
54%
Millwall (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Swansea at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.21 · 61 matches

Millwall away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.32 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Swansea attack 1.27 + Millwall defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.29

Millwall attack 1.12 + Swansea defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Swansea scores more
39%
level
27%
Millwall scores more
34%

Swansea at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Swansea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18
B. HamerSwanseaSwansea · G
8.2

Match Events

37'
Ryan Bennett
61'
Tom Bradshaw
62'
C. Mahoney← M. Bennett
63'
M. Obafemi← O. Ntcham
69'
L. Walsh← J. Paterson
70'
R. Leonard← D. Ballard
77'
Murray Wallace
80'
L. Cullen← J. Piroe
83'
Flynn Downes
86'
M. Smith← T. Bradshaw
89'
George Saville

Possession

64%Swansea

Shots

12Swansea

Pass accuracy

54%Swansea

Statistics

SwanseaMillwall
Overview
64%Possession36%
12Total Shots10
7Corners3
13Fouls8
Shots
12Total Shots10
4On Target4
3Off Target4
5Blocked2
7Inside Box8
5Outside Box2
Passing
64%Possession36%
616Total Passes344
522Accurate Passes245
85%Pass Accuracy71%
Goalkeeping
4Saves4
Discipline
13Fouls8
2Yellow Cards3
1Offsides1

Match Recap: Swansea vs Millwall

Swansea and Millwall drew 0-0 in Championship on September 15, 2021.

Swansea controlled possession (64%) and registered 12 shots to 10.

The match was played at Swansea.com Stadium in Swansea.