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Swansea vs Huddersfield — Championship 2018

Swansea
Swansea
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Huddersfield
Huddersfield
A. Ayew 33' (pen)
J. Koroma 67'
H. Toffolo 23'
10/17/2020ChampionshipChampionship · Round 5Liberty Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Swansea44%
×Draw27%
Huddersfield29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Swansea
1.38
Huddersfield
1.08

Swansea creates 28% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 12 away

creates per match

Swansea
1.27
Huddersfield
0.96

allows per match

Swansea
1.21
Huddersfield
1.49

finishing

Swansea+0.04on par
Huddersfield+0.12scores more

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Swansea ↓

Huddersfield →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Swansea or draw
71%
Swansea or Huddersfield
73%
Draw or Huddersfield
56%

Winning margin

Swansea wins by 2+
21%
Huddersfield wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Swansea 1+ goals
75%
Swansea 2+ goals
40%
Swansea 3+ goals
16%
Huddersfield 1+ goals
66%
Huddersfield 2+ goals
29%
Huddersfield 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Swansea (draw refunded)
60%
Huddersfield (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Swansea at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.21 · 61 matches

Huddersfield away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.49 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Swansea attack 1.27 + Huddersfield defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.38

Huddersfield attack 0.96 + Swansea defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Swansea scores more
44%
level
27%
Huddersfield scores more
29%

Swansea at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Swansea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26
C. SchindlerHuddersfieldHuddersfield · D
7.9

Match Events

16'
Juninho Bacuna
23'
H. Toffolo↳ J. Bacuna
32'
Ben Hamer
33'
A. AyewPenalty
45'
Jake Bidwell
45'
Isaac Mbenza
60'
Richard Stearman
62'
K. Palmer← V. Gyökeres
62'
F. Campbell← I. Mbenza
67'
J. Koroma↳ R. Stearman
72'
L. O'Brien← J. Bacuna
81'
L. Cullen← J. Lowe
81'
J. Garrick← K. Naughton
85'
D. Duhaney← C. Eiting

Possession

51%Swansea

Shots

17Swansea

Pass accuracy

52%Swansea

Statistics

SwanseaHuddersfield
Overview
51%Possession49%
17Total Shots10
15Corners2
18Fouls16
Shots
17Total Shots10
6On Target3
6Off Target4
5Blocked3
14Inside Box9
3Outside Box1
Passing
51%Possession49%
390Total Passes392
304Accurate Passes284
78%Pass Accuracy72%
Goalkeeping
1Saves5
Discipline
18Fouls16
1Yellow Cards4

Match Recap: Swansea vs Huddersfield

Huddersfield beat Swansea 2-1 in Championship on October 17, 2020.

Goals: H. Toffolo (23'), A. Ayew (33' pen), J. Koroma (67').

Swansea controlled possession (51%) and registered 17 shots to 10.

The match was played at Liberty Stadium in Swansea.