Swansea 3–1 Huddersfield: Result & Stats

Swansea

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Huddersfield

J. Garrick 90'

J. Fulton 80'

A. Ayew 28'

S. Mounié 78'

2/22/2020

Championship · Round 34Liberty Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Swansea44%

×Draw27%

Huddersfield29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SwanseaExpected goals in this matchHuddersfield

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.08

Swansea

1.38

Huddersfield

1.08

Swansea creates 28% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 12 away

1.27

creates per match

0.96

1.21

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Swansea

1.27

Huddersfield

0.96

allows per match

Swansea

1.21

Huddersfield

1.49

+0.04on par

finishing

+0.12scores more than expected

finishing

Swansea+0.04on par

Huddersfield+0.12scores more

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Swansea ↓

Huddersfield →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Swansea or draw

71%

Swansea or Huddersfield

73%

Draw or Huddersfield

56%

Winning margin

Swansea wins by 2+

21%

Huddersfield wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Swansea 1+ goals

75%

Swansea 2+ goals

40%

Swansea 3+ goals

16%

Huddersfield 1+ goals

66%

Huddersfield 2+ goals

29%

Huddersfield 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Swansea (draw refunded)

60%

Huddersfield (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Swansea at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.21 · 61 matches

Huddersfield away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.49 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Swansea attack 1.27 + Huddersfield defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.38

Huddersfield attack 0.96 + Swansea defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Swansea scores more

44%

level

27%

Huddersfield scores more

29%

Swansea at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Swansea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

J. Fulton

Swansea · M

7.7

Match Events

28'

45'

46'

49'

54'

E. Smith Rowe← A. King

63'

J. Garrick← A. Kalulu

71'

C. Willock← E. Kachunga

78'

S. Mounié↳ J. Hogg

80'

J. Fulton↳ M. Grimes

89'

B. Wilmot← J. Fulton

90+3'

C. Roberts← R. Brewster

90'

J. Garrick↳ C. Gallagher

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SwanseaHuddersfield

Overview

37%Possession63%

15Total Shots7

5Corners5

11Fouls12

Shots

15Total Shots7

6On Target4

2Off Target2

7Blocked1

13Inside Box6

2Outside Box1

Passing

37%Possession63%

327Total Passes544

222Accurate Passes440

68%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls12

1Yellow Cards1