Swansea vs Derby — Championship 2025
Swansea have scored in 14 games running
brightest fact of this match
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 37+ matches
Swansea49%
Derby26%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Swansea creates 48% more chances
Season form · 37 home / 39 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under51
- Over49
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes52
- No48
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Swansea ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Swansea at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.97 · 37 matches
Derby away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.67 · 39 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Swansea attack 1.49 + Derby defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.58
Derby attack 1.18 + Swansea defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.07
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 49%?"
Swansea at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 49% does not mean "Swansea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Insights
- Swansea score first in only 13% of matches
- Both teams score in 83% of Swansea’s matches
- Swansea win just 14% against the top half (vs 63% against the bottom)
Based on historical data — not a prediction.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Coventry
Ipswich
Millwall
Southampton
Middlesbrough
Hull City
WrexhamDerby
Norwich
BirminghamSwansea
Bristol City
Sheffield Utd
Preston
QPR
Watford
Stoke City
Portsmouth
West Brom
Charlton
Leicester
Blackburn
Oxford United
Sheffield WednesdayIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Swansea host Derby on Saturday, 17 April 2027 at 14:00. The match is part of the Championship 2025/2026 season.
Swansea face Derby (Championship)
Championship returns with Swansea hosting Derby. Match starts April 17, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.
Swansea host Derby at Swansea.com Stadium.
Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.