Swansea 1–1 Coventry: Result & Stats | Championship

Swansea

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Coventry

J. Yates 41'

M. Godden 39'

8/19/2023

Championship · Round 3Swansea.com Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 58+ matches

Swansea35%

×Draw27%

Coventry38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SwanseaExpected goals in this matchCoventry

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.32

Swansea

1.25

Coventry

1.32

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 59 home / 58 away

1.29

creates per match

1.44

1.21

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Swansea

1.29

Coventry

1.44

allows per match

Swansea

1.21

Coventry

1.22

+0.03on par

finishing

+0.09on par

finishing

Swansea+0.03on par

Coventry+0.09on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Swansea ↓

Coventry →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Swansea or draw

62%

Swansea or Coventry

73%

Draw or Coventry

65%

Winning margin

Swansea wins by 2+

15%

Coventry wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Swansea 1+ goals

71%

Swansea 2+ goals

36%

Swansea 3+ goals

13%

Coventry 1+ goals

73%

Coventry 2+ goals

38%

Coventry 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Swansea (draw refunded)

48%

Coventry (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Swansea at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.21 · 59 matches

Coventry away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.22 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Swansea attack 1.29 + Coventry defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.25

Coventry attack 1.44 + Swansea defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Swansea scores more

35%

level

27%

Coventry scores more

38%

Coventry at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Coventry will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28

J. Eccles

Coventry · M

7.7

Match Events

39'

M. Godden↳ H. Wright

41'

J. Yates↳ H. Ashby

58'

Joel Latibeaudiere

70'

L. Kelly← M. van Ewijk

79'

81'

81'

82'

85'

J. Ginnelly← J. Yates

88'

Joe Allen

90+3'

Matt Grimes

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SwanseaCoventry

Overview

40%Possession60%

7Total Shots11

0.73Expected Goals (xG)0.86

3Corners8

12Fouls10

Shots

7Total Shots11

3On Target2

4Off Target8

0Blocked1

5Inside Box8

2Outside Box3

Passing

40%Possession60%

406Total Passes601

327Accurate Passes521

81%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls10

2Yellow Cards1

1Offsides3