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Swansea vs Coventry — Championship 2018

Swansea
Swansea
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Coventry
Coventry
M. Obafemi 48', 40'
J. Paterson 12'
G. Hamer 84'
3/5/2022ChampionshipChampionship · Round 36Swansea.com Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 58+ matches

Swansea35%
×Draw27%
Coventry38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Swansea
1.25
Coventry
1.32

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 61 home / 58 away

creates per match

Swansea
1.27
Coventry
1.44

allows per match

Swansea
1.21
Coventry
1.22

finishing

Swansea+0.04on par
Coventry+0.09on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Swansea ↓

Coventry →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Swansea or draw
62%
Swansea or Coventry
73%
Draw or Coventry
65%

Winning margin

Swansea wins by 2+
15%
Coventry wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Swansea 1+ goals
71%
Swansea 2+ goals
36%
Swansea 3+ goals
13%
Coventry 1+ goals
73%
Coventry 2+ goals
38%
Coventry 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Swansea (draw refunded)
48%
Coventry (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Swansea at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.21 · 61 matches

Coventry away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.22 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Swansea attack 1.27 + Coventry defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.25

Coventry attack 1.44 + Swansea defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Swansea scores more
35%
level
27%
Coventry scores more
38%

Coventry at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Coventry will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
M. ObafemiSwanseaSwansea · F
8.6

Match Events

8'
Jake Bidwell
12'
J. Paterson↳ M. Obafemi
17'
Kyle Naughton
40'
M. Obafemi↳ F. Downes
48'
M. Obafemi↳ M. Grimes
63'
M. Godden← J. Bidwell
63'
M. Waghorn← V. Gyökeres
64'
O. Ntcham← J. Paterson
69'
Ben Cabango
72'
Jake Clarke-Salter
74'
J. Latibeaudiere← M. Obafemi
81'
J. Fulton← K. Smith
84'
G. Hamer↳ M. Waghorn

Possession

53%Swansea

Shots

8Swansea

Pass accuracy

49%Swansea

Statistics

SwanseaCoventry
Overview
53%Possession47%
8Total Shots12
1Corners4
9Fouls11
Shots
8Total Shots12
3On Target4
2Off Target6
3Blocked2
6Inside Box8
2Outside Box4
Passing
53%Possession47%
530Total Passes457
436Accurate Passes383
82%Pass Accuracy84%
Goalkeeping
3Saves0
Discipline
9Fouls11
2Yellow Cards2
4Offsides3

Championship: Swansea 3–1 Coventry

Swansea beat Coventry 3-1 in Championship on March 5, 2022.

Goals: J. Paterson (12'), M. Obafemi (40', 48'), G. Hamer (84').

Swansea controlled possession (53%) and registered 8 shots to 12.

The match was played at Swansea.com Stadium in Swansea.