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Swansea vs Blackburn — Championship 2018

Swansea
Swansea
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Blackburn
Blackburn
M. Obafemi 16'
2/5/2022ChampionshipChampionship · Round 30Swansea.com Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 59+ matches

Swansea41%
×Draw27%
Blackburn31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Swansea
1.32
Blackburn
1.11

Swansea creates 19% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 59 away

creates per match

Swansea
1.27
Blackburn
1.01

allows per match

Swansea
1.21
Blackburn
1.38

finishing

Swansea+0.04on par
Blackburn+0.06on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Swansea ↓

Blackburn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Swansea or draw
69%
Swansea or Blackburn
73%
Draw or Blackburn
59%

Winning margin

Swansea wins by 2+
19%
Blackburn wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Swansea 1+ goals
73%
Swansea 2+ goals
38%
Swansea 3+ goals
15%
Blackburn 1+ goals
67%
Blackburn 2+ goals
30%
Blackburn 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Swansea (draw refunded)
57%
Blackburn (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Swansea at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.21 · 61 matches

Blackburn away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.38 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Swansea attack 1.27 + Blackburn defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.32

Blackburn attack 1.01 + Swansea defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Swansea scores more
41%
level
27%
Blackburn scores more
31%

Swansea at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Swansea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

33
A. FisherSwanseaSwansea · G
7.9

Match Events

16'
M. Obafemi↳ J. Paterson
24'
Joe Rothwell
33'
John Buckley
37'
Olivier Ntcham
38'
Ryan Manning
53'
Ryan Manning
53'
Ryan Manning
55'
R. Bennett← M. Obafemi
58'
K. Smith← O. Ntcham
60'
B. Brereton← R. Hedges
60'
R. Khadra← D. Zeefuik
68'
J. Rankin-Costello← R. Nyambe
72'
J. Latibeaudiere← J. Piroe
90+2'
Cyrus Christie

Possession

49%Swansea

Shots

4Swansea

Pass accuracy

49%Swansea

Statistics

SwanseaBlackburn
Overview
49%Possession51%
4Total Shots17
0Corners13
9Fouls13
Shots
4Total Shots17
2On Target4
1Off Target10
1Blocked3
2Inside Box14
2Outside Box3
Passing
49%Possession51%
409Total Passes383
314Accurate Passes308
77%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
4Saves1
Discipline
9Fouls13
4Yellow Cards2
1Red Cards0
2Offsides1

Match Recap: Swansea vs Blackburn

Swansea beat Blackburn 1-0 in Championship on February 5, 2022.

Goals: M. Obafemi (16').

Blackburn controlled possession (51%) and registered 17 shots to 4.

The match was played at Swansea.com Stadium in Swansea.