Swansea 3–1 Blackburn: Result & Stats

Swansea

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Blackburn

B. Celina 85'

C. Roberts 68'

David Raya 64' (OG)

C. Mulgrew 26' (pen)

10/23/2018

Championship · Round 14Liberty Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 59+ matches

Swansea41%

×Draw27%

Blackburn31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SwanseaExpected goals in this matchBlackburn

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.11

Swansea

1.32

Blackburn

1.11

Swansea creates 19% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 59 away

1.27

creates per match

1.01

1.21

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Swansea

1.27

Blackburn

1.01

allows per match

Swansea

1.21

Blackburn

1.38

+0.04on par

finishing

+0.06on par

finishing

Swansea+0.04on par

Blackburn+0.06on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Swansea ↓

Blackburn →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Swansea or draw

69%

Swansea or Blackburn

73%

Draw or Blackburn

59%

Winning margin

Swansea wins by 2+

19%

Blackburn wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Swansea 1+ goals

73%

Swansea 2+ goals

38%

Swansea 3+ goals

15%

Blackburn 1+ goals

67%

Blackburn 2+ goals

30%

Blackburn 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Swansea (draw refunded)

57%

Blackburn (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Swansea at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.21 · 61 matches

Blackburn away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.38 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Swansea attack 1.27 + Blackburn defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.32

Blackburn attack 1.01 + Swansea defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Swansea scores more

41%

level

27%

Blackburn scores more

31%

Swansea at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Swansea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

B. Celina

Swansea · M

8.3

Match Events

12'

J. Rodwell← D. Lenihan

19'

Charlie Mulgrew

26'

C. MulgrewPenalty

42'

Elliott Bennett

46'

L. Fer← T. Carroll

46'

J. Fulton← Martin Olsson

59'

B. Brereton← D. Graham

64'

David RayaOwn goal

68'

C. Roberts↳ D. James

71'

J. Rothwell← C. Evans

85'

B. Celina↳ L. Fer

90'

C. Baker-Richardson← O. McBurnie

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SwanseaBlackburn

Overview

54%Possession46%

16Total Shots9

5Corners4

11Fouls13

Shots

16Total Shots9

2On Target3

9Off Target2

5Blocked4

10Inside Box4

6Outside Box5

Passing

54%Possession46%

499Total Passes420

400Accurate Passes308

80%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

2Saves0

Discipline

11Fouls13

0Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

1Offsides1