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Swansea vs Birmingham — Championship 2018

Swansea
Swansea
Preview
15:00
Birmingham
Birmingham
1/30/2027ChampionshipChampionship · Round 29Swansea.com Stadium
Big match
41%
Swansea
model favours
41%28%31%

Birmingham have won 5 in a row

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
58%
under 2.5 goals
48%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 36+ matches

Swansea41%
×Draw28%
Birmingham31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Swansea
1.29
Birmingham
1.08

Swansea creates 19% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 36 away

creates per match

Swansea
1.27
Birmingham
0.95

allows per match

Swansea
1.21
Birmingham
1.32

finishing

Swansea+0.04on par
Birmingham-0.20scores less

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Swansea ↓

Birmingham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Swansea or draw
69%
Swansea or Birmingham
72%
Draw or Birmingham
59%

Winning margin

Swansea wins by 2+
19%
Birmingham wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Swansea 1+ goals
72%
Swansea 2+ goals
37%
Swansea 3+ goals
14%
Birmingham 1+ goals
66%
Birmingham 2+ goals
29%
Birmingham 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Swansea (draw refunded)
57%
Birmingham (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Swansea at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.21 · 61 matches

Birmingham away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.32 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Swansea attack 1.27 + Birmingham defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.29

Birmingham attack 0.95 + Swansea defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Swansea scores more
41%
level
28%
Birmingham scores more
31%

Swansea at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Swansea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Birmingham are unbeaten in 7 straight
  • Swansea score first in only 16% of matches
  • Both teams score in 80% of Swansea’s matches
  • Birmingham have scored in 7 games running

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Swansea
Balanced
Birmingham
Balanced
57%PossessionBiggest gap46%
81%Pass accuracy69%
11.9Shots11.9
1.18xG1.27
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
SwanseaBirmingham

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

0
Swansea
6
Draws
4
Birmingham
Avg goals: 2.4BTTS: 60%
1–10–12–21–13–4

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Swansea
LDWDW
Birmingham
WWWDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Swansea face Birmingham (Championship)

Championship returns with Swansea hosting Birmingham. Match starts January 30, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Swansea host Birmingham at Swansea.com Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.