Swansea 0–0 Birmingham: Result & Stats

Swansea

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Birmingham

9/19/2020

Championship · Round 2Liberty Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 37+ matches

Swansea41%

×Draw28%

Birmingham31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SwanseaExpected goals in this matchBirmingham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.08

Swansea

1.29

Birmingham

1.08

Swansea creates 19% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 37 away

1.27

creates per match

0.96

1.21

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Swansea

1.27

Birmingham

0.96

allows per match

Swansea

1.21

Birmingham

1.30

+0.04on par

finishing

-0.18scores less than expected

finishing

Swansea+0.04on par

Birmingham-0.18scores less

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Swansea ↓

Birmingham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Swansea or draw

69%

Swansea or Birmingham

72%

Draw or Birmingham

59%

Winning margin

Swansea wins by 2+

19%

Birmingham wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Swansea 1+ goals

72%

Swansea 2+ goals

37%

Swansea 3+ goals

14%

Birmingham 1+ goals

66%

Birmingham 2+ goals

29%

Birmingham 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Swansea (draw refunded)

57%

Birmingham (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Swansea at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.21 · 61 matches

Birmingham away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.30 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Swansea attack 1.27 + Birmingham defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.29

Birmingham attack 0.96 + Swansea defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Swansea scores more

41%

level

28%

Birmingham scores more

31%

Swansea at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Swansea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30

N. Etheridge

Birmingham · G

8.3

Match Events

11'

Harlee Dean

63'

G. Gardner← Jon Toral

85'

L. Cullen← J. Lowe

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SwanseaBirmingham

Overview

61%Possession39%

8Total Shots10

5Corners8

10Fouls13

Shots

8Total Shots10

5On Target3

1Off Target1

2Blocked6

6Inside Box6

2Outside Box4

Passing

61%Possession39%

527Total Passes327

435Accurate Passes230

83%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

Discipline

10Fouls13

0Yellow Cards1

1Offsides1