Swansea 2–1 Arsenal: Result & Stats

Swansea

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Arsenal

B. Gomis 78'

G. Sigurðsson 75'

A. Sánchez 63'

11/9/2014

Premier League · Round 11Liberty Stadium (Swansea)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Swansea32%

×Draw25%

Arsenal43%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SwanseaExpected goals in this matchArsenal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.50

Swansea

1.25

Arsenal

1.50

Arsenal creates 20% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 210 away

1.27

creates per match

1.63

1.38

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Swansea

1.27

Arsenal

1.63

allows per match

Swansea

1.38

Arsenal

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Swansea+0.00on par

Arsenal+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Swansea ↓

Arsenal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Swansea or draw

57%

Swansea or Arsenal

75%

Draw or Arsenal

68%

Winning margin

Swansea wins by 2+

13%

Arsenal wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Swansea 1+ goals

71%

Swansea 2+ goals

36%

Swansea 3+ goals

13%

Arsenal 1+ goals

78%

Arsenal 2+ goals

44%

Arsenal 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Swansea (draw refunded)

42%

Arsenal (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Swansea at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.38 · 74 matches

Arsenal away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.24 · 210 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Swansea attack 1.27 + Arsenal defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.25

Arsenal attack 1.63 + Swansea defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Swansea scores more

32%

level

25%

Arsenal scores more

43%

Arsenal at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Arsenal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

63'

A. Sánchez↳ D. Welbeck

67'

M. Barrow← M. Emnes

75'

G. Sigurðsson

76'

B. Gomis← W. Bony

78'

B. Gomis↳ J. Montero

79'

J. Wilshere← M. Flamini

79'

T. Walcott← A. Ramsey

87'

L. Britton← T. Carroll

90'

Y. Sanogo← C. Chambers

Swansea

Arsenal

1

4

18

3

21

▼

Chambers

20

▼

Flamini

19

Cazorla

16

▼

Ramsey

17

⚽

Sánchez

23

A

15

1

3

6

22

27

4

23

⚽

Sigurðsso

14

▼

Carroll

11

▼

Emnes

10

▼

Bony

20

A

Montero

67'▲M. Barrow←▼M. Emnes

76'▲B. Gomis←▼W. Bony

87'▲L. Britton←▼T. Carroll

Swansea substitutes

58Barrow18Gomis7Britton2Amat19Tiendalli25Tremmel56Fulton

79'▲J. Wilshere←▼M. Flamini

79'▲T. Walcott←▼A. Ramsey

90'▲Y. Sanogo←▼C. Chambers

Arsenal substitutes

10Wilshere14Walcott22Sanogo7Rosický9Podolski26Martínez39Bellerín