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Svidník vs Vranov nad Topľou — 3. liga - East 2020

Svidník
Svidník
FT
0 – 2
Vranov nad Topľou
Vranov nad Topľou
5/30/20213. liga - East3. liga - East · East - 13Mestský Futbalový Štadión Svidník

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Svidník37%
×Draw25%
Vranov nad Topľou38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Svidník
1.38
Vranov nad Topľou
1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 81 away

creates per match

Svidník
1.27
Vranov nad Topľou
1.14

allows per match

Svidník
1.65
Vranov nad Topľou
1.48

finishing

Svidník+0.00on par
Vranov nad Topľou+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Svidník ↓

Vranov nad Topľou →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Svidník or draw
62%
Svidník or Vranov nad Topľou
75%
Draw or Vranov nad Topľou
63%

Winning margin

Svidník wins by 2+
17%
Vranov nad Topľou wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Svidník 1+ goals
75%
Svidník 2+ goals
40%
Svidník 3+ goals
16%
Vranov nad Topľou 1+ goals
75%
Vranov nad Topľou 2+ goals
41%
Vranov nad Topľou 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Svidník (draw refunded)
49%
Vranov nad Topľou (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Svidník at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.65 · 51 matches

Vranov nad Topľou away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.48 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Svidník attack 1.27 + Vranov nad Topľou defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.38

Vranov nad Topľou attack 1.14 + Svidník defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Svidník scores more
37%
level
25%
Vranov nad Topľou scores more
38%

Vranov nad Topľou at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Vranov nad Topľou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Svidník vs Vranov nad Topľou

Vranov nad Topľou beat Svidník 2-0 in 3. liga - East on May 30, 2021.

The match was played at Mestský Futbalový Štadión Svidník in Svidník.