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Svidník vs Spišské Podhradie — 3. liga - East 2020

Svidník
Svidník
FT
1 – 0
Spišské Podhradie
Spišské Podhradie
5/23/20213. liga - East3. liga - East · East - 11Mestský Futbalový Štadión Svidník

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Svidník56%
×Draw21%
Spišské Podhradie22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Svidník
2.06
Spišské Podhradie
1.23

Svidník creates 67% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 65 away

creates per match

Svidník
1.27
Spišské Podhradie
0.80

allows per match

Svidník
1.65
Spišské Podhradie
2.86

finishing

Svidník+0.00on par
Spišské Podhradie+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Svidník ↓

Spišské Podhradie →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Svidník or draw
78%
Svidník or Spišské Podhradie
79%
Draw or Spišské Podhradie
44%

Winning margin

Svidník wins by 2+
34%
Spišské Podhradie wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Svidník 1+ goals
87%
Svidník 2+ goals
61%
Svidník 3+ goals
34%
Spišské Podhradie 1+ goals
71%
Spišské Podhradie 2+ goals
35%
Spišské Podhradie 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Svidník (draw refunded)
71%
Spišské Podhradie (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Svidník at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.65 · 51 matches

Spišské Podhradie away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.86 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Svidník attack 1.27 + Spišské Podhradie defence 2.86 → ÷2 → 2.06

Spišské Podhradie attack 0.80 + Svidník defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Svidník scores more
56%
level
21%
Spišské Podhradie scores more
22%

Svidník at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Svidník will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Svidník vs Spišské Podhradie

Svidník beat Spišské Podhradie 1-0 in 3. liga - East on May 23, 2021.

The match was played at Mestský Futbalový Štadión Svidník in Svidník.