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SV Wallern vs Union St. Florian — Landesliga - Oberosterreich 2019

SV Wallern
SV Wallern
FT
2 – 0
Union St. Florian
Union St. Florian
8/13/2019Landesliga - OberosterreichLandesliga - Oberosterreich · Oberösterreich - 2Sportplatz SV Zaunergroup Wallern

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

SV Wallern65%
×Draw18%
Union St. Florian17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SV Wallern
2.54
Union St. Florian
1.22

SV Wallern creates 108% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 29 away

creates per match

SV Wallern
3.09
Union St. Florian
1.10

allows per match

SV Wallern
1.34
Union St. Florian
2.00

finishing

SV Wallern+0.00on par
Union St. Florian+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SV Wallern ↓

Union St. Florian →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

SV Wallern or draw
83%
SV Wallern or Union St. Florian
82%
Draw or Union St. Florian
35%

Winning margin

SV Wallern wins by 2+
44%
Union St. Florian wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

SV Wallern 1+ goals
92%
SV Wallern 2+ goals
72%
SV Wallern 3+ goals
46%
Union St. Florian 1+ goals
70%
Union St. Florian 2+ goals
34%
Union St. Florian 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

SV Wallern (draw refunded)
80%
Union St. Florian (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SV Wallern at home — creates 3.09, concedes 1.34 · 44 matches

Union St. Florian away — creates 1.10, concedes 2.00 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SV Wallern attack 3.09 + Union St. Florian defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.54

Union St. Florian attack 1.10 + SV Wallern defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

SV Wallern scores more
65%
level
18%
Union St. Florian scores more
17%

SV Wallern at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "SV Wallern will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

SV Wallern 2 – 0 Union St. Florian

SV Wallern beat Union St. Florian 2-0 in Landesliga - Oberosterreich on August 13, 2019.

The match was played at Sportplatz SV Zaunergroup Wallern in Wallern an der Trattnach.