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SV Innsbruck vs Kirchbichl — Landesliga - Tirol 2019

SV Innsbruck
SV Innsbruck
FT
4 – 1
Kirchbichl
Kirchbichl
9/27/2019Landesliga - TirolLandesliga - Tirol · Tirol - 9Sportplatz Wiesengasse C

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

SV Innsbruck43%
×Draw21%
Kirchbichl35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SV Innsbruck
2.04
Kirchbichl
1.83

SV Innsbruck creates 11% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 44 away

creates per match

SV Innsbruck
1.90
Kirchbichl
1.77

allows per match

SV Innsbruck
1.90
Kirchbichl
2.18

finishing

SV Innsbruck+0.00on par
Kirchbichl+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SV Innsbruck ↓

Kirchbichl →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

SV Innsbruck or draw
65%
SV Innsbruck or Kirchbichl
79%
Draw or Kirchbichl
57%

Winning margin

SV Innsbruck wins by 2+
24%
Kirchbichl wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

SV Innsbruck 1+ goals
87%
SV Innsbruck 2+ goals
60%
SV Innsbruck 3+ goals
33%
Kirchbichl 1+ goals
84%
Kirchbichl 2+ goals
54%
Kirchbichl 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

SV Innsbruck (draw refunded)
55%
Kirchbichl (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SV Innsbruck at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.90 · 30 matches

Kirchbichl away — creates 1.77, concedes 2.18 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SV Innsbruck attack 1.90 + Kirchbichl defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 2.04

Kirchbichl attack 1.77 + SV Innsbruck defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

SV Innsbruck scores more
43%
level
21%
Kirchbichl scores more
35%

SV Innsbruck at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "SV Innsbruck will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Tirol: SV Innsbruck 4–1 Kirchbichl

SV Innsbruck beat Kirchbichl 4-1 in Landesliga - Tirol on September 27, 2019.

The match was played at Sportplatz Wiesengasse C in Innsbruck.