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SV Eichede vs Oldenburger SV — League #744 2026

SV Eichede
SV Eichede
FT
6 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Oldenburger SV
Oldenburger SV
3/5/2022League #744League #744 · Schleswig-Holstein - 16Ernst-Wagener-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

SV Eichede69%
×Draw17%
Oldenburger SV14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SV Eichede
2.53
Oldenburger SV
1.04

SV Eichede creates 143% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 6 away

creates per match

SV Eichede
1.73
Oldenburger SV
1.00

allows per match

SV Eichede
1.09
Oldenburger SV
3.33

finishing

SV Eichede+0.00on par
Oldenburger SV+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SV Eichede ↓

Oldenburger SV →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

SV Eichede or draw
86%
SV Eichede or Oldenburger SV
83%
Draw or Oldenburger SV
31%

Winning margin

SV Eichede wins by 2+
47%
Oldenburger SV wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

SV Eichede 1+ goals
92%
SV Eichede 2+ goals
71%
SV Eichede 3+ goals
46%
Oldenburger SV 1+ goals
65%
Oldenburger SV 2+ goals
28%
Oldenburger SV 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

SV Eichede (draw refunded)
83%
Oldenburger SV (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SV Eichede at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.09 · 22 matches

Oldenburger SV away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SV Eichede attack 1.73 + Oldenburger SV defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 2.53

Oldenburger SV attack 1.00 + SV Eichede defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

SV Eichede scores more
69%
level
17%
Oldenburger SV scores more
14%

SV Eichede at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "SV Eichede will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SV Eichede vs Oldenburger SV

SV Eichede beat Oldenburger SV 6-0 in League #744 on March 5, 2022.

The match was played at Ernst-Wagener-Stadion in Steinburg.