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SV Eichede vs Kilia Kiel — League #744 2026

SV Eichede
SV Eichede
Preview
13:00
Kilia Kiel
Kilia Kiel
3/21/2027League #744League #744 · Schleswig-Holstein - 23
Big match
57%
SV Eichede
model favours
57%26%17%

Both teams scored in 5 of the last 7 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
61%
under 2.5 goals
40%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

SV Eichede57%
×Draw26%
Kilia Kiel17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SV Eichede
1.53
Kilia Kiel
0.71

SV Eichede creates 115% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 6 away

creates per match

SV Eichede
1.73
Kilia Kiel
0.33

allows per match

SV Eichede
1.09
Kilia Kiel
1.33

finishing

SV Eichede+0.00on par
Kilia Kiel+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SV Eichede ↓

Kilia Kiel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

SV Eichede or draw
83%
SV Eichede or Kilia Kiel
74%
Draw or Kilia Kiel
43%

Winning margin

SV Eichede wins by 2+
30%
Kilia Kiel wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

SV Eichede 1+ goals
78%
SV Eichede 2+ goals
45%
SV Eichede 3+ goals
20%
Kilia Kiel 1+ goals
51%
Kilia Kiel 2+ goals
16%
Kilia Kiel 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

SV Eichede (draw refunded)
77%
Kilia Kiel (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SV Eichede at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.09 · 22 matches

Kilia Kiel away — creates 0.33, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SV Eichede attack 1.73 + Kilia Kiel defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.53

Kilia Kiel attack 0.33 + SV Eichede defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

SV Eichede scores more
57%
level
26%
Kilia Kiel scores more
17%

SV Eichede at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "SV Eichede will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Eichede
LLDDW
Kiel
DWLDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: SV Eichede host Kilia Kiel

March 21, 2027: SV Eichede take on Kilia Kiel in League #744. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.