SV Eichede 1–1 Heider SV: Result & Stats

SV Eichede

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Heider SV

M. Wahl 20'

J. O. Butzek 83'

10/2/2022

League #744 · Schleswig-Holstein - 12Ernst-Wagener-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

SV Eichede45%

×Draw25%

Heider SV31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SV EichedeExpected goals in this matchHeider SV

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.27

SV Eichede

1.58

Heider SV

1.27

SV Eichede creates 24% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 9 away

1.73

creates per match

1.44

1.09

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

SV Eichede

1.73

Heider SV

1.44

allows per match

SV Eichede

1.09

Heider SV

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SV Eichede+0.00on par

Heider SV+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SV Eichede ↓

Heider SV →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

SV Eichede or draw

69%

SV Eichede or Heider SV

75%

Draw or Heider SV

55%

Winning margin

SV Eichede wins by 2+

23%

Heider SV wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

SV Eichede 1+ goals

79%

SV Eichede 2+ goals

47%

SV Eichede 3+ goals

21%

Heider SV 1+ goals

72%

Heider SV 2+ goals

36%

Heider SV 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

SV Eichede (draw refunded)

59%

Heider SV (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SV Eichede at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.09 · 22 matches

Heider SV away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SV Eichede attack 1.73 + Heider SV defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.58

Heider SV attack 1.44 + SV Eichede defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

SV Eichede scores more

45%

level

25%

Heider SV scores more

31%

SV Eichede at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "SV Eichede will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

M. Wahl

83'

J. O. Butzek

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff