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SV Babelsberg 03 vs Optik Rathenow — Regionalliga - Nordost 2026

SV Babelsberg 03
SV Babelsberg 03
CANC
12:30
Optik Rathenow
Optik Rathenow
2/21/2021Regionalliga - NordostRegionalliga - Nordost · Nordost - 24Karl-Liebknecht-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

SV Babelsberg 0353%
×Draw24%
Optik Rathenow23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SV Babelsberg 03
1.69
Optik Rathenow
1.04

SV Babelsberg 03 creates 63% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 8 away

creates per match

SV Babelsberg 03
1.88
Optik Rathenow
0.88

allows per match

SV Babelsberg 03
1.21
Optik Rathenow
1.50

finishing

SV Babelsberg 03+0.00on par
Optik Rathenow+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SV Babelsberg 03 ↓

Optik Rathenow →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

SV Babelsberg 03 or draw
77%
SV Babelsberg 03 or Optik Rathenow
76%
Draw or Optik Rathenow
47%

Winning margin

SV Babelsberg 03 wins by 2+
28%
Optik Rathenow wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

SV Babelsberg 03 1+ goals
82%
SV Babelsberg 03 2+ goals
50%
SV Babelsberg 03 3+ goals
24%
Optik Rathenow 1+ goals
65%
Optik Rathenow 2+ goals
28%
Optik Rathenow 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

SV Babelsberg 03 (draw refunded)
69%
Optik Rathenow (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SV Babelsberg 03 at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.21 · 24 matches

Optik Rathenow away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SV Babelsberg 03 attack 1.88 + Optik Rathenow defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.69

Optik Rathenow attack 0.88 + SV Babelsberg 03 defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

SV Babelsberg 03 scores more
53%
level
24%
Optik Rathenow scores more
23%

SV Babelsberg 03 at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "SV Babelsberg 03 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

SV Babelsberg 03 vs Optik Rathenow — Match Preview

SV Babelsberg 03 face Optik Rathenow on February 21, 2021 in this Regionalliga - Nordost fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

SV Babelsberg 03 host Optik Rathenow at Karl-Liebknecht-Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.