SV Babelsberg 03 3–2 Optik Rathenow: Result & Stats

SV Babelsberg 03

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Optik Rathenow

B. Rangelov 82', 36'

P. Wolf 45+1'

C. Özcin 53'

A. Bilbija 8'

11/8/2019

Regionalliga - Nordost · Nordost - 15Karl-Liebknecht-Stadion (Potsdam)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

SV Babelsberg 0353%

×Draw24%

Optik Rathenow23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SV Babelsberg 03Expected goals in this matchOptik Rathenow

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.04

SV Babelsberg 03

1.69

Optik Rathenow

1.04

SV Babelsberg 03 creates 63% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 8 away

1.88

creates per match

0.88

1.21

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

SV Babelsberg 03

1.88

Optik Rathenow

0.88

allows per match

SV Babelsberg 03

1.21

Optik Rathenow

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SV Babelsberg 03+0.00on par

Optik Rathenow+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SV Babelsberg 03 ↓

Optik Rathenow →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

SV Babelsberg 03 or draw

77%

SV Babelsberg 03 or Optik Rathenow

76%

Draw or Optik Rathenow

47%

Winning margin

SV Babelsberg 03 wins by 2+

28%

Optik Rathenow wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

SV Babelsberg 03 1+ goals

82%

SV Babelsberg 03 2+ goals

50%

SV Babelsberg 03 3+ goals

24%

Optik Rathenow 1+ goals

65%

Optik Rathenow 2+ goals

28%

Optik Rathenow 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

SV Babelsberg 03 (draw refunded)

69%

Optik Rathenow (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SV Babelsberg 03 at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.21 · 24 matches

Optik Rathenow away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SV Babelsberg 03 attack 1.88 + Optik Rathenow defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.69

Optik Rathenow attack 0.88 + SV Babelsberg 03 defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

SV Babelsberg 03 scores more

53%

level

24%

Optik Rathenow scores more

23%

SV Babelsberg 03 at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "SV Babelsberg 03 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

36'

41'

45+1'

53'

73'

D. Komnos← F. Montcheu

77'

G. Karupovic← K. Adewumi

79'

A. Sagat← P. Wolf

79'

Y. Sakran← L. Hellwig

82'

B. Rangelov

87'

S. Reimann← T. Nattermann

SV

Optik

1

Hiemann

24

Turan

27

Wilcke

18

▼

Adewumi

28

Aydoğdu

3

⚽

Bilbija

4

Techie-Me

10

Kapan

16

▼

Leroy

6

▼

Hellwig

26

⚽

28

36

26

5

17

▼

Montcheu

3

Rode

18

Danko

11

▼

Natterman

8

⚽2

Rangelov

19

⚽

▼

Wolf

34

Dombrowa

Manager: M. Vorbeck

73'▲D. Komnos←▼F. Montcheu

79'▲A. Sagat←▼P. Wolf

87'▲S. Reimann←▼T. Nattermann

SV Babelsberg 03 substitutes

6Komnos7Sagat21Reimann12Jradi20Kaya23Bobkiewicz27Yesilli

Manager: I. Kahlisch

41'▲O. Matur←▼J. Leroy

77'▲G. Karupovic←▼K. Adewumi

79'▲Y. Sakran←▼L. Hellwig

Optik Rathenow substitutes

20Matur17Karupovic5Sakran12Serdcevs13Seongkye22Ševčuks