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Suwon FMC W vs Seoul W — WK-League 2026

Suwon FMC W
Suwon FMC W
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Seoul W
Seoul W
8/29/2024WK-LeagueWK-League · Round 24Suwon Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Suwon FMC W54%
×Draw23%
Seoul W23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Suwon FMC W
1.87
Seoul W
1.14

Suwon FMC W creates 64% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 81 away

creates per match

Suwon FMC W
1.73
Seoul W
1.07

allows per match

Suwon FMC W
1.21
Seoul W
2.01

finishing

Suwon FMC W+0.00on par
Seoul W+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Suwon FMC W ↓

Seoul W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Suwon FMC W or draw
77%
Suwon FMC W or Seoul W
77%
Draw or Seoul W
46%

Winning margin

Suwon FMC W wins by 2+
31%
Seoul W wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Suwon FMC W 1+ goals
85%
Suwon FMC W 2+ goals
56%
Suwon FMC W 3+ goals
29%
Seoul W 1+ goals
68%
Seoul W 2+ goals
32%
Seoul W 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Suwon FMC W (draw refunded)
70%
Seoul W (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Suwon FMC W at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.21 · 75 matches

Seoul W away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.01 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Suwon FMC W attack 1.73 + Seoul W defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 1.87

Seoul W attack 1.07 + Suwon FMC W defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Suwon FMC W scores more
54%
level
23%
Seoul W scores more
23%

Suwon FMC W at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Suwon FMC W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Suwon FMC W vs Seoul W

Suwon FMC W beat Seoul W 2-0 in WK-League on August 29, 2024.

The match was played at Suwon Sports Complex in Suwon.