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Suwon FMC W vs Hwacheon KSPO W — WK-League 2026

Suwon FMC W
Suwon FMC W
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Hwacheon KSPO W
Hwacheon KSPO W
5/22/2025WK-LeagueWK-League · Round 13Suwon Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Suwon FMC W39%
×Draw25%
Hwacheon KSPO W35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Suwon FMC W
1.43
Hwacheon KSPO W
1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 75 home / 78 away

creates per match

Suwon FMC W
1.73
Hwacheon KSPO W
1.49

allows per match

Suwon FMC W
1.21
Hwacheon KSPO W
1.13

finishing

Suwon FMC W+0.00on par
Hwacheon KSPO W+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Suwon FMC W ↓

Hwacheon KSPO W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Suwon FMC W or draw
65%
Suwon FMC W or Hwacheon KSPO W
75%
Draw or Hwacheon KSPO W
61%

Winning margin

Suwon FMC W wins by 2+
18%
Hwacheon KSPO W wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Suwon FMC W 1+ goals
76%
Suwon FMC W 2+ goals
42%
Suwon FMC W 3+ goals
17%
Hwacheon KSPO W 1+ goals
74%
Hwacheon KSPO W 2+ goals
39%
Hwacheon KSPO W 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Suwon FMC W (draw refunded)
52%
Hwacheon KSPO W (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Suwon FMC W at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.21 · 75 matches

Hwacheon KSPO W away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.13 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Suwon FMC W attack 1.73 + Hwacheon KSPO W defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.43

Hwacheon KSPO W attack 1.49 + Suwon FMC W defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Suwon FMC W scores more
39%
level
25%
Hwacheon KSPO W scores more
35%

Suwon FMC W at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Suwon FMC W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

WK-League: Suwon FMC W 0–3 Hwacheon KSPO W

Hwacheon KSPO W beat Suwon FMC W 3-0 in WK-League on May 22, 2025.

The match was played at Suwon Sports Complex in Suwon.