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Sutton Utd vs Yeovil Town — League #43 2026

Sutton Utd
Sutton Utd
Preview
14:00
Yeovil Town
Yeovil Town
3/29/2027League #43League #43 · Round 42VBS Community Stadium
Big match
48%
Sutton Utd
model favours
48%24%28%

Both teams score in 100% of Yeovil Town’s matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
58%
over 2.5 goals
59%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Sutton Utd48%
×Draw24%
Yeovil Town28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sutton Utd
1.73
Yeovil Town
1.27

Sutton Utd creates 36% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 13 away

creates per match

Sutton Utd
1.47
Yeovil Town
1.00

allows per match

Sutton Utd
1.53
Yeovil Town
2.00

finishing

Sutton Utd+0.00on par
Yeovil Town+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sutton Utd ↓

Yeovil Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Sutton Utd or draw
72%
Sutton Utd or Yeovil Town
76%
Draw or Yeovil Town
52%

Winning margin

Sutton Utd wins by 2+
26%
Yeovil Town wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Sutton Utd 1+ goals
82%
Sutton Utd 2+ goals
52%
Sutton Utd 3+ goals
25%
Yeovil Town 1+ goals
72%
Yeovil Town 2+ goals
36%
Yeovil Town 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Sutton Utd (draw refunded)
63%
Yeovil Town (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sutton Utd at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.53 · 45 matches

Yeovil Town away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sutton Utd attack 1.47 + Yeovil Town defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.73

Yeovil Town attack 1.00 + Sutton Utd defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Sutton Utd scores more
48%
level
24%
Yeovil Town scores more
28%

Sutton Utd at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Sutton Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Yeovil Town score first in only 18% of matches
  • 82% of Yeovil Town’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Sutton Utd score first in only 26% of matches
  • Both sides lean high-scoring (61% and 82% over 2.5)
  • 38% of Sutton Utd’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • Both teams scored in 6 of the last 8 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Utd
DLWD
Town
WDWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Sutton Utd host Yeovil Town

March 29, 2027: Sutton Utd take on Yeovil Town in League #43. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Sutton Utd host Yeovil Town at VBS Community Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.