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Sutton Utd vs Walsall — League Two 2018

Sutton Utd
Sutton Utd
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Walsall
Walsall
T. Shade 66'
10/30/2021League TwoLeague Two · Round 15VBS Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Sutton Utd42%
×Draw27%
Walsall31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sutton Utd
1.36
Walsall
1.11

Sutton Utd creates 23% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 156 away

creates per match

Sutton Utd
1.41
Walsall
1.13

allows per match

Sutton Utd
1.09
Walsall
1.31

finishing

Sutton Utd+0.00on par
Walsall+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sutton Utd ↓

Walsall →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Sutton Utd or draw
69%
Sutton Utd or Walsall
73%
Draw or Walsall
58%

Winning margin

Sutton Utd wins by 2+
20%
Walsall wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Sutton Utd 1+ goals
74%
Sutton Utd 2+ goals
39%
Sutton Utd 3+ goals
16%
Walsall 1+ goals
67%
Walsall 2+ goals
30%
Walsall 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Sutton Utd (draw refunded)
58%
Walsall (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sutton Utd at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.09 · 69 matches

Walsall away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.31 · 156 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sutton Utd attack 1.41 + Walsall defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.36

Walsall attack 1.13 + Sutton Utd defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sutton Utd scores more
42%
level
27%
Walsall scores more
31%

Sutton Utd at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sutton Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29
A. SmithSutton UtdSutton Utd · M
7.5

Match Events

43'
Joss Labadie
58'
T. Shade← K. Phillips
66'
T. Shade
72'
E. Boldewijn← W. Randall-Hurren
76'
D. Wilson← I. Olaofe
84'
S. Perry← E. Osadebe
86'
T. Sho-Silva← Omar Bugiel
86'
A. Taylor← B. Kiernan
90+2'
Sam Perry

Possession

55%Sutton

Shots

13Sutton

Pass accuracy

53%Sutton

Statistics

SuttonWalsall
Overview
55%Possession45%
13Total Shots5
4Corners3
11Fouls10
Shots
13Total Shots5
2On Target2
6Off Target3
5Blocked0
7Inside Box2
6Outside Box3
Passing
55%Possession45%
384Total Passes318
262Accurate Passes191
68%Pass Accuracy60%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
Discipline
11Fouls10
0Yellow Cards2
0Offsides1

League Two: Sutton Utd 0–1 Walsall

Walsall beat Sutton Utd 1-0 in League Two on October 30, 2021.

Goals: T. Shade (66').

Sutton Utd controlled possession (55%) and registered 13 shots to 5.

The match was played at VBS Community Stadium in Sutton, Surrey.