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Sutton Utd vs Tamworth — League #43 2026

Sutton Utd
Sutton Utd
Preview
19:45
Tamworth
Tamworth
2/16/2027League #43League #43 · Round 33VBS Community Stadium
Big match
46%
Sutton Utd
model favours
46%24%30%

82% of Tamworth’s matches go over 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
56%
over 2.5 goals
58%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Sutton Utd46%
×Draw24%
Tamworth30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sutton Utd
1.65
Tamworth
1.27

Sutton Utd creates 30% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 6 away

creates per match

Sutton Utd
1.47
Tamworth
1.00

allows per match

Sutton Utd
1.53
Tamworth
1.83

finishing

Sutton Utd+0.00on par
Tamworth+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sutton Utd ↓

Tamworth →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Sutton Utd or draw
70%
Sutton Utd or Tamworth
76%
Draw or Tamworth
54%

Winning margin

Sutton Utd wins by 2+
24%
Tamworth wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Sutton Utd 1+ goals
81%
Sutton Utd 2+ goals
49%
Sutton Utd 3+ goals
23%
Tamworth 1+ goals
72%
Tamworth 2+ goals
36%
Tamworth 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Sutton Utd (draw refunded)
61%
Tamworth (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sutton Utd at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.53 · 45 matches

Tamworth away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sutton Utd attack 1.47 + Tamworth defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.65

Tamworth attack 1.00 + Sutton Utd defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Sutton Utd scores more
46%
level
24%
Tamworth scores more
30%

Sutton Utd at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Sutton Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Sutton Utd score first in only 26% of matches
  • Tamworth score first in only 27% of matches
  • Both sides lean high-scoring (61% and 82% over 2.5)
  • 38% of Sutton Utd’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • Sutton Utd sit 2, Tamworth 14 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Utd
DLWD
Tamworth
LWLWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Sutton Utd host Tamworth

February 16, 2027: Sutton Utd take on Tamworth in League #43. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Sutton Utd host Tamworth at VBS Community Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.