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Sutton Utd vs Forest Green — League #43 2026

Sutton Utd
Sutton Utd
Preview
14:00
Forest Green
Forest Green
9/26/2026League #43League #43 · Round 10VBS Community Stadium
Big match
43%
Sutton Utd
model favours
43%25%33%

Sutton Utd score first in only 26% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
55%
over 2.5 goals
58%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Sutton Utd43%
×Draw25%
Forest Green33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sutton Utd
1.55
Forest Green
1.33

Sutton Utd creates 17% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 8 away

creates per match

Sutton Utd
1.47
Forest Green
1.13

allows per match

Sutton Utd
1.53
Forest Green
1.63

finishing

Sutton Utd+0.00on par
Forest Green+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sutton Utd ↓

Forest Green →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Sutton Utd or draw
67%
Sutton Utd or Forest Green
75%
Draw or Forest Green
57%

Winning margin

Sutton Utd wins by 2+
21%
Forest Green wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Sutton Utd 1+ goals
79%
Sutton Utd 2+ goals
46%
Sutton Utd 3+ goals
20%
Forest Green 1+ goals
74%
Forest Green 2+ goals
38%
Forest Green 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Sutton Utd (draw refunded)
57%
Forest Green (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sutton Utd at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.53 · 45 matches

Forest Green away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.63 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sutton Utd attack 1.47 + Forest Green defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.55

Forest Green attack 1.13 + Sutton Utd defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sutton Utd scores more
43%
level
25%
Forest Green scores more
33%

Sutton Utd at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sutton Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Sutton Utd sit 2, Forest Green 21 in the table
  • 38% of Sutton Utd’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Utd
DLWD
Green
DWWLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sutton Utd vs Forest Green — Match Preview

Sutton Utd face Forest Green on September 26, 2026 in this League #43 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Sutton Utd host Forest Green at VBS Community Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.