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Sutton Utd vs Boreham Wood — League #43 2026

Sutton Utd
Sutton Utd
Preview
18:45
Boreham Wood
Boreham Wood
10/9/2026League #43League #43 · Round 13VBS Community Stadium
Big match
43%
Boreham Wood
model favours
33%24%43%

Both teams score in 100% of Boreham Wood’s matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
61%
over 2.5 goals
63%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Sutton Utd33%
×Draw24%
Boreham Wood43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sutton Utd
1.46
Boreham Wood
1.69

Boreham Wood creates 16% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 20 away

creates per match

Sutton Utd
1.47
Boreham Wood
1.85

allows per match

Sutton Utd
1.53
Boreham Wood
1.45

finishing

Sutton Utd+0.00on par
Boreham Wood+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sutton Utd ↓

Boreham Wood →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Sutton Utd or draw
57%
Sutton Utd or Boreham Wood
76%
Draw or Boreham Wood
67%

Winning margin

Sutton Utd wins by 2+
15%
Boreham Wood wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Sutton Utd 1+ goals
77%
Sutton Utd 2+ goals
43%
Sutton Utd 3+ goals
18%
Boreham Wood 1+ goals
82%
Boreham Wood 2+ goals
50%
Boreham Wood 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Sutton Utd (draw refunded)
44%
Boreham Wood (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sutton Utd at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.53 · 45 matches

Boreham Wood away — creates 1.85, concedes 1.45 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sutton Utd attack 1.47 + Boreham Wood defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.46

Boreham Wood attack 1.85 + Sutton Utd defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sutton Utd scores more
33%
level
24%
Boreham Wood scores more
43%

Boreham Wood at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Boreham Wood will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Boreham Wood have scored in 11 games running
  • Boreham Wood are unbeaten in 5 straight
  • Boreham Wood score first in only 25% of matches
  • Sutton Utd score first in only 26% of matches
  • Both sides lean high-scoring (61% and 75% over 2.5)
  • Top-of-the-table clash — Sutton Utd 2 vs Boreham Wood 3

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Utd
DLWD
Wood
WDWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sutton Utd vs Boreham Wood — Match Preview

Sutton Utd face Boreham Wood on October 9, 2026 in this League #43 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Sutton Utd host Boreham Wood at VBS Community Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.