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Sutjeska vs Mornar — First League 2025

Sutjeska
Sutjeska
Preview
17:00
Mornar
Mornar
9/9/2026First LeagueFirst League · Round 7Stadion Gradski
Big match
50%
Sutjeska
model favours
50%26%24%

Mornar score first in only 23% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
57%
under 2.5 goals
47%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Sutjeska50%
×Draw26%
Mornar24%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sutjeska
1.48
Mornar
0.94

Sutjeska creates 57% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 19 away

creates per match

Sutjeska
1.91
Mornar
1.05

allows per match

Sutjeska
0.83
Mornar
1.05

finishing

Sutjeska+0.00on par
Mornar+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sutjeska ↓

Mornar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Sutjeska or draw
76%
Sutjeska or Mornar
74%
Draw or Mornar
50%

Winning margin

Sutjeska wins by 2+
25%
Mornar wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Sutjeska 1+ goals
77%
Sutjeska 2+ goals
43%
Sutjeska 3+ goals
19%
Mornar 1+ goals
61%
Mornar 2+ goals
24%
Mornar 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Sutjeska (draw refunded)
67%
Mornar (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sutjeska at home — creates 1.91, concedes 0.83 · 23 matches

Mornar away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.05 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sutjeska attack 1.91 + Mornar defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.48

Mornar attack 1.05 + Sutjeska defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Sutjeska scores more
50%
level
26%
Mornar scores more
24%

Sutjeska at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Sutjeska will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in only 23% of Sutjeska’s matches
  • 69% of Sutjeska’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • 69% of Mornar’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Top-of-the-table clash — Sutjeska 1 vs Mornar 2

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Sutjeska
LLLL
Mornar
LLDWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sutjeska face Mornar (First League)

First League returns with Sutjeska hosting Mornar. Match starts September 9, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Sutjeska host Mornar at Stadion Gradski.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.