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Supra du Quebec vs York United — Canadian Premier League 2020

Supra du Quebec
Supra du Quebec
Preview
23:00
York United
York United
10/16/2026Canadian Premier LeagueCanadian Premier League · Group Stage
41%
Supra du Quebec
model favours
41%27%32%

York United score first in only 20% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
54%
under 2.5 goals
51%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Supra du Quebec41%
×Draw27%
York United32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Supra du Quebec
1.34
York United
1.16

Supra du Quebec creates 16% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 82 away

creates per match

Supra du Quebec
1.17
York United
1.15

allows per match

Supra du Quebec
1.17
York United
1.51

finishing

Supra du Quebec+0.00on par
York United+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Supra du Quebec ↓

York United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Supra du Quebec or draw
68%
Supra du Quebec or York United
73%
Draw or York United
59%

Winning margin

Supra du Quebec wins by 2+
19%
York United wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Supra du Quebec 1+ goals
74%
Supra du Quebec 2+ goals
39%
Supra du Quebec 3+ goals
15%
York United 1+ goals
69%
York United 2+ goals
32%
York United 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Supra du Quebec (draw refunded)
56%
York United (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Supra du Quebec at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

York United away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.51 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Supra du Quebec attack 1.17 + York United defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.34

York United attack 1.15 + Supra du Quebec defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Supra du Quebec scores more
41%
level
27%
York United scores more
32%

Supra du Quebec at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Supra du Quebec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in 70% of York United’s matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Quebec
WLLDW
United
LLLLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Supra du Quebec face York United (Canadian Premier League)

Canadian Premier League returns with Supra du Quebec hosting York United. Match starts October 16, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.