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Supersport United vs Mamelodi Sundowns — Premier Soccer League 2018

Supersport United
Supersport United
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Mamelodi Sundowns
Mamelodi Sundowns
9/2/2022Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 5Lucas Masterpieces Moripe Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 105+ matches

Supersport United29%
×Draw30%
Mamelodi Sundowns41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Supersport United
0.94
Mamelodi Sundowns
1.18

Mamelodi Sundowns creates 26% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 119 away

creates per match

Supersport United
1.25
Mamelodi Sundowns
1.54

allows per match

Supersport United
0.81
Mamelodi Sundowns
0.62

finishing

Supersport United+0.00on par
Mamelodi Sundowns+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Supersport United ↓

Mamelodi Sundowns →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Supersport United or draw
59%
Supersport United or Mamelodi Sundowns
70%
Draw or Mamelodi Sundowns
71%

Winning margin

Supersport United wins by 2+
10%
Mamelodi Sundowns wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Supersport United 1+ goals
61%
Supersport United 2+ goals
24%
Supersport United 3+ goals
7%
Mamelodi Sundowns 1+ goals
69%
Mamelodi Sundowns 2+ goals
33%
Mamelodi Sundowns 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Supersport United (draw refunded)
41%
Mamelodi Sundowns (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Supersport United at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.81 · 105 matches

Mamelodi Sundowns away — creates 1.54, concedes 0.62 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Supersport United attack 1.25 + Mamelodi Sundowns defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.94

Mamelodi Sundowns attack 1.54 + Supersport United defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Supersport United scores more
29%
level
30%
Mamelodi Sundowns scores more
41%

Mamelodi Sundowns at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Mamelodi Sundowns will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Supersport United vs Mamelodi Sundowns

Supersport United beat Mamelodi Sundowns 2-1 in Premier Soccer League on September 2, 2022.

The match was played at Lucas Masterpieces Moripe Stadium in Pretoria, GT.