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Supersport United vs Baroka FC — Premier Soccer League 2018

Supersport United
Supersport United
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Baroka FC
Baroka FC
2/23/2019Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 17Lucas Masterpieces Moripe Stadium (Pretoria, GT)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Supersport United50%
×Draw29%
Baroka FC22%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Supersport United
1.32
Baroka FC
0.77

Supersport United creates 71% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 66 away

creates per match

Supersport United
1.25
Baroka FC
0.73

allows per match

Supersport United
0.81
Baroka FC
1.39

finishing

Supersport United+0.00on par
Baroka FC+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Supersport United ↓

Baroka FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Supersport United or draw
78%
Supersport United or Baroka FC
71%
Draw or Baroka FC
50%

Winning margin

Supersport United wins by 2+
23%
Baroka FC wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Supersport United 1+ goals
73%
Supersport United 2+ goals
38%
Supersport United 3+ goals
15%
Baroka FC 1+ goals
54%
Baroka FC 2+ goals
18%
Baroka FC 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Supersport United (draw refunded)
69%
Baroka FC (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Supersport United at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.81 · 107 matches

Baroka FC away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.39 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Supersport United attack 1.25 + Baroka FC defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.32

Baroka FC attack 0.73 + Supersport United defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Supersport United scores more
50%
level
29%
Baroka FC scores more
22%

Supersport United at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Supersport United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Supersport United vs Baroka FC

Baroka FC beat Supersport United 2-1 in Premier Soccer League on February 23, 2019.

The match was played at Lucas Masterpieces Moripe Stadium (Pretoria, GT).