Super Nova 0–4 Rīgas FS: Result & Stats | Virsliga

Super Nova

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 3

Rīgas FS

11/5/2023

Virsliga · Round 35Salaspils sporta nama stadions

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Super Nova14%

×Draw18%

Rīgas FS68%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Super NovaExpected goals in this matchRīgas FS

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.93

2.29

Super Nova

0.93

Rīgas FS

2.29

Rīgas FS creates 146% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 117 away

0.94

creates per match

2.26

2.33

allows per match

0.92

creates per match

Super Nova

0.94

Rīgas FS

2.26

allows per match

Super Nova

2.33

Rīgas FS

0.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Super Nova+0.00on par

Rīgas FS+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Super Nova ↓

Rīgas FS →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–19%

0–211%

0–38%

0–45%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–38%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–25%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (11%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Super Nova or draw

32%

Super Nova or Rīgas FS

82%

Draw or Rīgas FS

86%

Winning margin

Super Nova wins by 2+

4%

Rīgas FS wins by 2+

44%

Team goals

Super Nova 1+ goals

61%

Super Nova 2+ goals

24%

Super Nova 3+ goals

7%

Rīgas FS 1+ goals

90%

Rīgas FS 2+ goals

66%

Rīgas FS 3+ goals

40%

Draw no bet

Super Nova (draw refunded)

17%

Rīgas FS (draw refunded)

83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Super Nova at home — creates 0.94, concedes 2.33 · 64 matches

Rīgas FS away — creates 2.26, concedes 0.92 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Super Nova attack 0.94 + Rīgas FS defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.93

Rīgas FS attack 2.26 + Super Nova defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Super Nova scores more

14%

level

18%

Rīgas FS scores more

68%

Rīgas FS at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Rīgas FS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff