Sunderland 1–2 Plymouth: Result & Stats

Sunderland

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Plymouth

A. O'Brien 51'

J. Edwards 56'

A. Lewis 11'

1/19/2021

League One · Round 23Stadium of Light

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Sunderland49%

×Draw24%

Plymouth27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SunderlandExpected goals in this matchPlymouth

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.16

Sunderland

1.67

Plymouth

1.16

Sunderland creates 44% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 114 away

1.83

creates per match

1.39

0.93

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Sunderland

1.83

Plymouth

1.39

allows per match

Sunderland

0.93

Plymouth

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sunderland+0.00on par

Plymouth+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sunderland ↓

Plymouth →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Sunderland or draw

73%

Sunderland or Plymouth

76%

Draw or Plymouth

51%

Winning margin

Sunderland wins by 2+

26%

Plymouth wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Sunderland 1+ goals

81%

Sunderland 2+ goals

50%

Sunderland 3+ goals

23%

Plymouth 1+ goals

69%

Plymouth 2+ goals

32%

Plymouth 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Sunderland (draw refunded)

65%

Plymouth (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sunderland at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.93 · 88 matches

Plymouth away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.50 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sunderland attack 1.83 + Plymouth defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.67

Plymouth attack 1.39 + Sunderland defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Sunderland scores more

49%

level

24%

Plymouth scores more

27%

Sunderland at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Sunderland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

A. O'Brien

Sunderland · F

7.9

Match Events

11'

28'

36'

46'

51'

A. O'Brien↳ C. McFadzean

54'

Aiden O'Brien

56'

J. Edwards

62'

B. Reeves← A. Lewis

71'

E. Embleton← C. McFadzean

71'

C. Maguire← A. McGeady

75'

N. Ennis← L. Jephcott

78'

G. Leadbitter← C. Winchester

80'

S. Wootton← T. Fornah

80'

F. Nouble← R. Hardie

83'

Michael Cooper

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SunderlandPlymouth

Overview

62%Possession38%

14Total Shots3

10Corners1

13Fouls12

Shots

14Total Shots3

5On Target3

8Off Target0

1Blocked0

9Inside Box2

5Outside Box1

Passing

62%Possession38%

524Total Passes321

417Accurate Passes223

80%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

13Fouls12

2Yellow Cards2

3Offsides1