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Sunderland vs Leeds — Championship 2018

Sunderland
Sunderland
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Leeds
Leeds
12/12/2023ChampionshipChampionship · Round 21Stadium of Light

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Sunderland37%
×Draw29%
Leeds35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sunderland
1.16
Leeds
1.12

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 7 away

creates per match

Sunderland
1.25
Leeds
1.63

allows per match

Sunderland
0.61
Leeds
1.06

finishing

Sunderland+0.13scores more
Leeds-0.06on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sunderland ↓

Leeds →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Sunderland or draw
65%
Sunderland or Leeds
71%
Draw or Leeds
63%

Winning margin

Sunderland wins by 2+
15%
Leeds wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Sunderland 1+ goals
69%
Sunderland 2+ goals
32%
Sunderland 3+ goals
11%
Leeds 1+ goals
67%
Leeds 2+ goals
31%
Leeds 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Sunderland (draw refunded)
51%
Leeds (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sunderland at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.61 · 8 matches

Leeds away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.06 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sunderland attack 1.25 + Leeds defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.16

Leeds attack 1.63 + Sunderland defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Sunderland scores more
37%
level
29%
Leeds scores more
35%

Sunderland at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Sunderland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championship: Sunderland 1–0 Leeds

Sunderland beat Leeds 1-0 in Championship on December 12, 2023.

The match was played at Stadium of Light in Sunderland.