Sumqayıt 0–0 Turan: Result & Stats | Premyer Liqa

Sumqayıt

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Turan

2/18/2024

Premyer Liqa · Round 23Mehdi Hüseynzadə adına Sumqayıt şəhər stadionu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Sumqayıt31%

×Draw27%

Turan42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SumqayıtExpected goals in this matchTuran

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

1.31

Sumqayıt

1.09

Turan

1.31

Turan creates 20% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 73 away

1.03

creates per match

1.14

1.48

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Sumqayıt

1.03

Turan

1.14

allows per match

Sumqayıt

1.48

Turan

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sumqayıt+0.00on par

Turan+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sumqayıt ↓

Turan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Sumqayıt or draw

58%

Sumqayıt or Turan

73%

Draw or Turan

69%

Winning margin

Sumqayıt wins by 2+

12%

Turan wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Sumqayıt 1+ goals

66%

Sumqayıt 2+ goals

30%

Sumqayıt 3+ goals

10%

Turan 1+ goals

73%

Turan 2+ goals

38%

Turan 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Sumqayıt (draw refunded)

43%

Turan (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sumqayıt at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.48 · 108 matches

Turan away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.15 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sumqayıt attack 1.03 + Turan defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.09

Turan attack 1.14 + Sumqayıt defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sumqayıt scores more

31%

level

27%

Turan scores more

42%

Turan at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Turan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff