Sumqayıt 1–3 Kapaz: Result & Stats | Premyer Liqa

Sumqayıt

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Kapaz

3/1/2024

Premyer Liqa · Round 25Mehdi Hüseynzadə adına Sumqayıt şəhər stadionu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Sumqayıt45%

×Draw26%

Kapaz30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SumqayıtExpected goals in this matchKapaz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.18

Sumqayıt

1.50

Kapaz

1.18

Sumqayıt creates 27% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 73 away

1.03

creates per match

0.88

1.48

allows per match

1.96

creates per match

Sumqayıt

1.03

Kapaz

0.88

allows per match

Sumqayıt

1.48

Kapaz

1.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sumqayıt+0.00on par

Kapaz+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sumqayıt ↓

Kapaz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Sumqayıt or draw

70%

Sumqayıt or Kapaz

74%

Draw or Kapaz

55%

Winning margin

Sumqayıt wins by 2+

22%

Kapaz wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Sumqayıt 1+ goals

78%

Sumqayıt 2+ goals

44%

Sumqayıt 3+ goals

19%

Kapaz 1+ goals

69%

Kapaz 2+ goals

33%

Kapaz 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Sumqayıt (draw refunded)

60%

Kapaz (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sumqayıt at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.48 · 108 matches

Kapaz away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.96 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sumqayıt attack 1.03 + Kapaz defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.50

Kapaz attack 0.88 + Sumqayıt defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Sumqayıt scores more

45%

level

26%

Kapaz scores more

30%

Sumqayıt at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Sumqayıt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff