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Šumperk vs Viktorie Přerov — 4. liga - Divizie E 2019

Šumperk
Šumperk
PST
14:00
Viktorie Přerov
Viktorie Přerov
4/26/20204. liga - Divizie E4. liga - Divizie E · Round 20Městský Stadion (Šumperk)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Šumperk48%
×Draw22%
Viktorie Přerov30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Šumperk
1.99
Viktorie Přerov
1.55

Šumperk creates 28% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 53 away

creates per match

Šumperk
1.65
Viktorie Přerov
1.51

allows per match

Šumperk
1.59
Viktorie Přerov
2.34

finishing

Šumperk+0.00on par
Viktorie Přerov+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Šumperk ↓

Viktorie Přerov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Šumperk or draw
70%
Šumperk or Viktorie Přerov
78%
Draw or Viktorie Přerov
52%

Winning margin

Šumperk wins by 2+
27%
Viktorie Přerov wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Šumperk 1+ goals
86%
Šumperk 2+ goals
59%
Šumperk 3+ goals
32%
Viktorie Přerov 1+ goals
79%
Viktorie Přerov 2+ goals
46%
Viktorie Přerov 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Šumperk (draw refunded)
61%
Viktorie Přerov (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Šumperk at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.59 · 51 matches

Viktorie Přerov away — creates 1.51, concedes 2.34 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Šumperk attack 1.65 + Viktorie Přerov defence 2.34 → ÷2 → 1.99

Viktorie Přerov attack 1.51 + Šumperk defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Šumperk scores more
48%
level
22%
Viktorie Přerov scores more
30%

Šumperk at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Šumperk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Šumperk vs Viktorie Přerov — Match Preview

Šumperk face Viktorie Přerov on April 26, 2020 in this 4. liga - Divizie E fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Šumperk host Viktorie Přerov at Městský Stadion (Šumperk).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.