Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Šumperk vs HFK Olomouc — 4. liga - Divizie E 2019

Šumperk
Šumperk
CANC
14:30
HFK Olomouc
HFK Olomouc
5/2/20214. liga - Divizie E4. liga - Divizie E · Division E - 18Městský Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Šumperk52%
×Draw21%
HFK Olomouc26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Šumperk
2.05
HFK Olomouc
1.40

Šumperk creates 46% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 66 away

creates per match

Šumperk
1.65
HFK Olomouc
1.21

allows per match

Šumperk
1.59
HFK Olomouc
2.45

finishing

Šumperk+0.00on par
HFK Olomouc+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Šumperk ↓

HFK Olomouc →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Šumperk or draw
74%
Šumperk or HFK Olomouc
79%
Draw or HFK Olomouc
48%

Winning margin

Šumperk wins by 2+
31%
HFK Olomouc wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Šumperk 1+ goals
87%
Šumperk 2+ goals
61%
Šumperk 3+ goals
33%
HFK Olomouc 1+ goals
75%
HFK Olomouc 2+ goals
41%
HFK Olomouc 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Šumperk (draw refunded)
67%
HFK Olomouc (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Šumperk at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.59 · 51 matches

HFK Olomouc away — creates 1.21, concedes 2.45 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Šumperk attack 1.65 + HFK Olomouc defence 2.45 → ÷2 → 2.05

HFK Olomouc attack 1.21 + Šumperk defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Šumperk scores more
52%
level
21%
HFK Olomouc scores more
26%

Šumperk at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Šumperk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Šumperk vs HFK Olomouc — Match Preview

Šumperk face HFK Olomouc on May 2, 2021 in this 4. liga - Divizie E fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Šumperk host HFK Olomouc at Městský Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.