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Suduva Marijampole vs Šiauliai — A Lyga 2026

Suduva Marijampole
Suduva Marijampole
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Šiauliai
Šiauliai
3/1/2024A LygaA Lyga · Round 1Hikvision Football Indoor Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Suduva Marijampole50%
×Draw26%
Šiauliai24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Suduva Marijampole
1.50
Šiauliai
0.96

Suduva Marijampole creates 56% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 84 away

creates per match

Suduva Marijampole
1.56
Šiauliai
1.13

allows per match

Suduva Marijampole
0.80
Šiauliai
1.45

finishing

Suduva Marijampole+0.00on par
Šiauliai+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Suduva Marijampole ↓

Šiauliai →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Suduva Marijampole or draw
76%
Suduva Marijampole or Šiauliai
74%
Draw or Šiauliai
50%

Winning margin

Suduva Marijampole wins by 2+
25%
Šiauliai wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Suduva Marijampole 1+ goals
78%
Suduva Marijampole 2+ goals
44%
Suduva Marijampole 3+ goals
19%
Šiauliai 1+ goals
62%
Šiauliai 2+ goals
25%
Šiauliai 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Suduva Marijampole (draw refunded)
67%
Šiauliai (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Suduva Marijampole at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.80 · 128 matches

Šiauliai away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.45 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Suduva Marijampole attack 1.56 + Šiauliai defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.50

Šiauliai attack 1.13 + Suduva Marijampole defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Suduva Marijampole scores more
50%
level
26%
Šiauliai scores more
24%

Suduva Marijampole at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Suduva Marijampole will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Suduva Marijampole vs Šiauliai

Suduva Marijampole and Šiauliai drew 0-0 in A Lyga on March 1, 2024.

The match was played at Hikvision Football Indoor Arena in Marijampolė.