Suduva Marijampole 0–0 Džiugas Telšiai

Suduva Marijampole

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Džiugas Telšiai

10/7/2023

A Lyga · Round 33Marijampolės futbolo arenos stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Suduva Marijampole52%

×Draw26%

Džiugas Telšiai23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Suduva MarijampoleExpected goals in this matchDžiugas Telšiai

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

0.92

Suduva Marijampole

1.54

Džiugas Telšiai

0.92

Suduva Marijampole creates 67% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 100 away

1.57

creates per match

1.00

0.83

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Suduva Marijampole

1.57

Džiugas Telšiai

1.00

allows per match

Suduva Marijampole

0.83

Džiugas Telšiai

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Suduva Marijampole+0.00on par

Džiugas Telšiai+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Suduva Marijampole ↓

Džiugas Telšiai →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Suduva Marijampole or draw

77%

Suduva Marijampole or Džiugas Telšiai

74%

Draw or Džiugas Telšiai

48%

Winning margin

Suduva Marijampole wins by 2+

27%

Džiugas Telšiai wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Suduva Marijampole 1+ goals

79%

Suduva Marijampole 2+ goals

45%

Suduva Marijampole 3+ goals

20%

Džiugas Telšiai 1+ goals

60%

Džiugas Telšiai 2+ goals

23%

Džiugas Telšiai 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Suduva Marijampole (draw refunded)

70%

Džiugas Telšiai (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Suduva Marijampole at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.83 · 128 matches

Džiugas Telšiai away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.52 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Suduva Marijampole attack 1.57 + Džiugas Telšiai defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.54

Džiugas Telšiai attack 1.00 + Suduva Marijampole defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Suduva Marijampole scores more

52%

level

26%

Džiugas Telšiai scores more

23%

Suduva Marijampole at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Suduva Marijampole will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'

O. Kayode

46'

E. Burdzilauskas← M. Mikulenas

68'

A. Emsis← A. Fedorov

73'

E. Burdzilauskas

75'

Aldair

77'

L. Matcharashvili← I. Olaosebikan

82'

J. Lubas← Vinícius Ribeiro

83'

J. Suzuki← D. Stankevičius

88'

M. Jezdimirović← D. Ankudinov

90+4'

J. Lubas

Suduva

Džiugas

94

13

62

33

10

18

8

24

11

▼

Ribeiro

21

▼

88

12

15

33

5

97

13

14

▼

Fedorov

19

▼

Olaosebik

18

Kayode

88

▼

Stankevič

11

▼

Mikulenas

Manager: D. Lastauskas

46'▲E. Burdzilauskas←▼M. Mikulenas

68'▲A. Emsis←▼A. Fedorov

77'▲L. Matcharashvili←▼I. Olaosebikan

83'▲J. Suzuki←▼D. Stankevičius

Suduva Marijampole substitutes

28Burdzilauskas10Emsis7Matcharashvili8Suzuki2Burdzilauskas21Miškinis66Pačėsa92Dubickas

Manager: João Prates

82'▲J. Lubas←▼Vinícius Ribeiro

88'▲M. Jezdimirović←▼D. Ankudinov

Džiugas Telšiai substitutes

9Lubas20Jezdimirović1Paukštė4Mika7Vasiliauskas23Jankauskas51Kubilinskas

Match Recap: Suduva Marijampole vs Džiugas Telšiai

Suduva Marijampole and Džiugas Telšiai drew 0-0 in A Lyga on October 7, 2023.

The match was played at Marijampolės futbolo arenos stadionas in Marijampolė.

Suduva Marijampole vs Džiugas Telšiai — A Lyga 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Suduva Marijampole vs Džiugas Telšiai